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The past four years, from 2020 to 2024, has been quite the roller-coaster ride.
From the Covid-crisis, to a supply crunch, to a bumper crop of Government Land Sales (GLS) sites to alleviate the issue. And let’s not forget the biggest issue of all: the new cooling measures in April 2023, which after around a year is beginning to sink its teeth into the real estate market.
Through it all, here’s how Tampines-area condos are faring, along with some upcoming factors to consider:
1. Tampines is better shielded than CCR properties at the moment
Tampines, like many non-central regions, has proven to be more resilient toward the April 2023 cooling measures.
Here’s a snapshot of overall prices in District 18, which you can see maintain a strong general uptrend:
Looking at overall private non-landed sales, average prices were at $1,276 psf in April 2023, when the new cooling measures kicked in. As of June 2024, average prices in Tampines (District 18) had risen to $1,436 psf, in spite of the cooling measures.
While total resistance to cooling measures is a bit of a tall order, we can surmise that Tampines - being the Outside of Central Region (OCR) - is less impacted by the measures.
This is because the biggest change from April ‘23 is that foreigners now pay 60% ABSD, up from 30% previously. But it’s the Core Central Region (CCR), such as Orchard, Newton, etc., that tend to see more foreign buyers; so it’s these luxury areas that absorb the impact of ABSD before regional centres like Tampines.
In District 9 (Orchard and River Valley) for example, we’ve seen average prices drop from $2,691 psf to $2,200 psf. This is a good reason why we should never assume prime areas are inherently better than non-central areas like Tampines, even for investment.
All signs suggest that regions like Tampines, which are characterised by more owner-occupiers than investors, will continue to see demand and price growth; and sellers here are in a position to brush off the worst of the cooling measures.
2. Price-sensitive prospects will likely favour the resale segment
New launch prices are currently at around $2,200+ psf, and developers are currently too squeezed to allow for lower prices. This leaves many HDB upgraders and first-time buyers looking to the resale segment, if they want a condo.
Tampines has benefitted from this, as it’s a mature regional centre with many mature resale projects. We can see how the resale market, specifically, in District 18 has been on a strong uptrend:
Looking at a three-year period from the aftermath of Covid (2021) to the present, we can see average resale, non-landed prices in the district climb from $989 psf, to $1,438 psf.
This is also evident from a number of top performing resale projects here.
CityLife @ Tampines, an EC that fulfilled its Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) in February 2021, saw prices increase from $1,063 psf when it MOP to $1,482 psf at present. This project had excellent timing, as it came out of MOP just in time to ride the wave of the post-Covid housing crunch.
(Note: transactions before the MOP are usual special appeal cases, as the first buyers of an EC have to wait out the five-year MOP from the point of key collection)
The Tampines Trilliant, which came out of its MOP just around a year earlier in February 2020, saw average prices go from $1,032 psf in February 2020 to $1,494 psf today:
How about fully private resale condos, which have a higher initial price?
Take a look at the prices of the 4 condos located at Tampines Avenue 10 over the past 5 years.
All 4 condos have prices increased between 20% to 30%.
The Tapestry leads with 30.44% increase. Prices average $1,314psf in 3Q2019 and increase to $1,714psf this quarter. This is trailed by The Santorini at 28.63% in the same period.
The Alps Residence and Q Bay Residences increased by 20.68% and 20.25% respectively.
Given the rising demand for the resale segment in Tampines, 2024 has been generous to sellers in this region - and while it’s uncertain if prices can keep this sort of momentum, it’s clear that this year, along with the previous, have been good times for existing owners to sell and realise their gains.
In fact, sellers of resale condos in Tampines may be the fortunate few who are able to afford new launches even in 2024, on the back of their sale proceeds.
3. The BTO ramp up from previous years improves the outlook for sellers
There have been a slew of popular BTO launches in Tampines North and Tampines South.
Tampines South has seen BTO launches from the “Green series” (so-called because of the project names like GreenGem, GreenJade, GreenQuartz, etc.), which went up in August of ‘21. Meanwhile, Tampines North has seen a ramp in accessibility, with the upcoming Tampines North MRT, which should be operational in 2030.
This may not be directly significant to the condo resale market for now, but it will be in the coming decade. This is because HDB upgraders constitute one of the largest buyer demographics for private properties - and most upgraders prefer to live in the same general area as their previous home. This is due to familiarity with the local amenities, as well as the likelihood that friends and parents are also nearby.
This provides a wider pool of prospective buyers for condos in this area, balancing out the increased supply of mega-developments like Treasure at Tampines. As such, buyers and sellers in this area should factor in the surge of BTO supply in recent years, as a major factor in future gains and rentability.
4. Currently, the quantum of resale condos in Tampines is at an attractive point for HDB upgraders
In general, most HDB upgraders can comfortably manage a quantum of between $1.5 million to $1.8 million; anything higher tends to be a stretch, even with the sales proceeds of their flats. At the same time, these buyers tend to favour units of at least 960 sq. ft., as this would at least be the same size as a typical 4-room flat (most HDB upgraders will be family units).
This recent market trend happens to suit Tampines’ resale projects rather well. As an example, CDL’s The Tapestry, which was finished just in 2021, has seen units of 1,089 sq. ft. transact for just around $1.7 million (a 15th floor unit in May 2024). The Alps, from 2019, has seen a 1,065 sq. ft. unit transact for just $1.55 million in May 2024, whilst a 1,087 sq. ft. unit transacted for $1.475 million in April of the same year.
This is likely why resale condo owners in the Tampines area have had no issues finding willing buyers of late: there’s a good match between unit size, quantum, and demand right now; and this is partly due to 2024’s new launches pricing out too many upgraders. The typical 1,000+ sq.ft. new launch unit today is likely to exceed a quantum of $2 million, beyond the comfort zone of upgraders.
As such, it’s fair to say that the 2024 market has been good to its sellers, despite economic headwinds.
This isn’t to say there aren’t some risks ahead
Like every part of Singapore, Tampines area condos have to contend with buyers’ growing financing issues: we appear to be headed into a higher interest rate environment, after a long break between the last Global Financial Crisis and today.
On top of this, we’re faced with rising geopolitical tensions, as well as possible market tumult following the wars in Europe and the Middle East. Sellers who have specific plans for right-sizing, or targeted retirement goals, would do well to consider realising their gains while prospects are strong right now.
Meanwhile, buyers may want to turn to their attention Tampines’ recently available ECs (e.g., CityLife and Trilliant), as one of the more affordable options in a pricey market.
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About The Author
Vivian joined the real estate industry in 2002.
Over the years, she has transacted numerous property deals, including HDB and private properties. She is well-versed in policies and regulations involving selling and purchasing residential properties. She has also handled complicated transactions like contra, divorce, administration/probate cases, and decoupling / part-share purchases.
Aside from her professional achievements, Vivian is a dedicated mother to 2 boys. Her role as a real estate mom has allowed her to strike a balance between her career and family, spending quality time with her children as they were growing up. Both boys are passionate footballers, and she takes great joy in supporting them at their school and club games.
Vivian is an active real estate salesperson and team leader. Call her at 98577714 for your real estate matters or if you are looking to join the industry.